Will It Matter?

Earlier this morning (see two posts below) I speculated about the possibility of big gains for the Republicans in November, saying that we need to retake the Senate and pick up at least 70 seats in the House to have any chance of stripping away the power of the Washington elites and remaking the way business is done on Capitol Hill.  If indeed the GOP achieves those gains the question will then be, will it matter?

For let's face it, the Republican Party is itself complicit in the mess we find ourselves in. To think that, if achieved, they will use power differently this time around requires some wishful thinking on our part. For too long they were the go-along-to-get-along party, always ready to compromise principal in order to achieve consensus with the Democrats, always ready to propose Democrat-lite type policy, always scared to be painted as cold-hearted by the mainstream press.  When they achieved political power previously, both in Congress and under the Bush presidency, they tried to maintain that power using the same methods as the Democrats, with big spending targeted at their own constituencies (for instance the Bush-Kennedy education bill and the prescription drug give-away) and to finance that spending by adding to the debt.  I'm paraphrasing Jonah Goldberg, whom I saw speak at a recent event, when he mentioned that conservatives should not forget that the furious firestorm created by the Obama administration's spending practices uses wood that was dried and kindled for eight years under the Bush administration and Republican rule.  Why would we expect the Republican party, were they to gain control of Congress, to act any differently this time?

There are a few things that could make a difference.  To begin with, there is a national sense of revulsion towards the policies of the Obama administration, especially when it comes to spending. Spending is the big issue in the current election. People understand like never before that we cannot continue on the current path. There is also the sense of elitist arrogance coming from this set of Democrats that has enraged the populace, exhibit number one being the strong-arm tactics used to pass the health care monstrosity against the public will. Add to that that many incumbent Republicans have lost in their primaries to more conservative candidates, many of them Sarah Palin and Tea Party endorsed. And also, as I stated in my previous post, numbers. If indeed we get 70+ House seats and control of the Senate, it will be fairly earth-shattering to those who currently hold seats in Congress. All these things will give pause to those Republicans up for reelection two years from now. These guys are all politicians and as such they will do what they need to in order to be reelected. The strategy to do so has always been to put a wet finger to the wind, gaging public support on each issue, always watching polls and carefully weighing options to offend the fewest numbers of people.  These guys must understand that playing it safe is no longer the way to get reelected. When they put that wet finger to the wind it has to knock them over on their ass so they understand things have changed.

Next, the leadership must change. I've admired Mitch McConnell for a long time.  I believe he is a solid conservative who often has the best interests of the country at heart. But should the Republicans take the Senate he thinks he will by default slide from minority leader to majority leader. This should not happen. He is too long in Washington, too closely associated with the modus operandi in DC that the rest of the country holds in such revulsion, to be an effective leader for change. He must step aside, along with the rest of the current Republican Senate leadership, for the good of the country. In his place should be Jim DeMint of S.C., a true conservative who has bucked the Republican establishment during the primaries and endorsed many of the Tea Party candidates who are anathema to the leadership. He understands better than his colleagues what is going on outside of Washington and he is ready tyo embrace and run with it. Among his soldiers should be the newly elected young guns, for instance Marco Rubio of Florida (whom I expect will win.) These young, energetic, forward-thinking conservatives should make up the new Republican leadership in the Senate. They were elected for a reason and they'll be more likely to deliver real change.  Don't talk to me about experience. The experienced got us into this mess.

Speaking of young, energetic, and forward-thinking, that leads me right to the House of Representatives and Paul Ryan. Whether or not he should become Speaker I can't really say. But he should be the party's leading spokesman on economic and budget issues, period. No one in Congress understands and can talk about these issues like Ryan. He is an all-star who can make his case to the people and can tear down the oppositions sophistries with ease. What's more, he has courage. His roadmap for getting out of this mess is a tremendous act of bravery and responsibility. That many in the current leadership are running away from it shows just how much new leadership is needed.

Next, they must introduce legislation the day they take power that reads something like this: "H.R. 3590, the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, is hereby repealed." It should pass committee and be introduced to the floor within the first week. I doubt a shaken Democratic party will filibuster so it should pass Congress. Obama is certain to veto it but that's okay. The Republicans need to start setting themselves against the Obama agenda and prove to the public they are serious about rollback. Obamacare will survive for at least another two years but they can then begin to defund it through the budgetary process. Will this lead to a budget crisis that shuts down the government? Perhaps so. A lot of people will want to avoid this due to previous history. It was after all the face-off Bill Clinton had with Newt Gingrich over the 1995 government shutdown, which Clinton won, that allowed Clinton to regain his mojo and take the upper hand once again. But I wouldn't worry about it this time. If the government shuts down, given current attitudes, that will be seen by many as a good thing. Besides, Obama and his team aren't the political pros the Clintonites were.

Next, they newly elected Republicans should pass legislation putting a hold on any money associated with the stimulus still not spent. Again, it will be vetoed. Again, this is a good thing. The object is not simply to take control of Congress this time. The object is also to defeat Obama in 2012. The public wants rollback. The Republicans must show just how much contempt Obama and his team hold the public. Each veto of legislation the public wants will be another step down the road to defeating Obama.

It goes without saying that the Republicans must pass responsible budgets with deep cuts in current spending. Again, it could lead to a budget crisis but I think it's one they could win and exploit to their own advantage.

Finally, we must keep the pressure on.  The members of the next Congress should be told over and over again that they work for us, we expect things to change, and that failure to deliver will lead to their firing. I think there is a good possibility this will happen. In the Internet age it is very easy to get the message across to Congress-critters. It should be exploited.

All these things could happen and, in the end, it may still not matter.  We're so far down the road to fiscal ruin that nothing we do at this point may save us. Still, we have no choice but to try.