For the Democratic Party that is, in the November midterms? Looking at it from my perspective, of course, the question is, how good will it be? How many seats will the Republican Party pick up in the House? 25? 40? 60? 80? While any of those numbers are possible the trend has been unbroken towards the GOP for pretty much a year now. A year ago many of us would have been satisfied with the 39 seats it will take to take control of the chamber. Now, I think 39 would be a huge disappointment because it would pretty much signal an end to the popular revolt against spending that's currently sweeping the country. Democrats would be able to argue that the Republican gains were not much larger than the normal losses an in-party suffers in an off-year election and reason, perhaps correctly, that the public doesn't trust them.
So what's the over-under, the number of seats which will constitute satisfaction vs. disappontment? For me right now it's 70. Over 70 and I'll be happy. Under, and I'll still be worried that the public doesn't understand the true extent of the economic crisis we're in. I have not blogged specifically about it before but let me state that I think we are set up for a meltdown the proportion of which we haven't seen since the 1930's. The debt crisis is going to kill us if something drastic isn't done about spending, and soon. We've already seen the housing bond market crash and from what I hear other various bond markets are tinkering on the edge. So we need numbers, big ones. Not just so we have control. We need numbers in order to give a slap in the face to the incumbents who do survive, to let them know that everything has changed. Business as usual is over. And if you want to survive you better get on-board. I think 70 is the minimum number for that to happen.
It's still not out of the realm of possibility the GOP could get more. Dick Morris has talked about numbers as high as 90 or 100. That seems a bridge too far to me but the man has run winning political campaigns in the past so his views shouldn't be discounted. Even more left-leaning politicos pretty much concede that the House is gone. Larry Sabato is currently predicting 47, with the caveat that there are a lot more seats on top of that which may switch.
How about the Senate? Again, Morris has been the only one (to my knowledge) to consistently predict the Senate could fall to the Republicans - they need 10 seats to gain a majority - but over the past few weeks just about everyone is saying it's in play. Sabato has it at 8-9 seats but that's without California (where Carly Fiorina is ahead of the despicable Barbara Boxer in many polls), Wisconsin (where Russ Feingold, one of the most liberal men in Congress, is neck and neck with newcomer Ron Johnson) or Washington (where Dino Rossi appears to be pulling ahead of Patty Murray). Say all three of those go to the Republicans. We could be looking at a pickup of more than 10 seats. Morris is predicting 12 and says we may see even more surprises beyond that.
I think we need the 10 Senate seats on top of the 70 House seats, for reasons stated above. If we are to have any chance of saving the country from economic ruin things need to change in Washington, drastically, and soon. That's why I'm such a big supporter of the Tea Party movement, and even Glenn Beck, who often gives me the willies. These are the people, along with Sarah Palin, who understand we are in crisis, who are getting out the message, and who are doing something to fight back against the gross irresponsibilities and unchecked appetites of the Washington elites.
But getting the 10 and 70 are just the first step. What needs to happen afterwards? That will be the subject of my next post.
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