Are the polls wrong?

I few weeks ago I told my buddy Mike that I thought the polls, as good as they look for Republicans right now, can't really be trusted. Why? Because I think the models are wrong. There has been a sea-change of opinion in America over the past two years; Obama, and liberalism, stand exposed. People are scared about country's future as well as their own. There is a new understanding that if we don't curb spending, and fast, America's future prospects will be vastly diminished. What is more, many Americans are understanding conservatism and the benefits of smaller government for the first time. A new-found respect for the founders and their ideas have swept over the country. Things have changed.

But the polling models haven't. Sure, some of the pollsters are trying to take into consideration what's gone on these past two years but none really know the extent of it. All the respected pollsters are trying to figure out how many people have switched, which years in the past are most like this year, etc. and base their models on that. But my point is that there probably are no models that truly reflect the wave of opinion that has swept over the country. The pollsters are trying to evaluate who are the likely voters and how many of them are are Republican, Democrat, or Independent but they don't really know the answers to those questions, not this year. If they are using old models than they are probably wrong. My opinion is that they are underestimating likely voters on the conservative side and overestimating them on the liberal side. As such, I think that the coming Republican landslide will be even more significant than many predict.

Mike, a few days later, admitted (I know it was hard for him) that he thought I was right. But we are just two interested outsiders. Yesterday, I got confirmation from a political insider that my opinion is valid. Pat Caddell, former pollster for McGovern and Carter, an old-time liberal who has been alienated from  modern liberalism and thinks the Democratic party under Obama is corrupt, echoed my thoughts yesterday on the Ricochet podcast - see Episode 39, "The Shrinking Violets."  "Shrinking Violets" is used here ironically - there is nothing shy or retiring about Pat Caddell. He let's loose on both parties during the podcast and it makes for terrific fun. Listen to the whole thing if you're a political junkie like myself. You won't be disappointed. While you're at it subscribe to the podcast and perhaps subscribe to the Ricochet website. It costs $3.47 per month, which they say is the costs of a cup of Starbucks coffee.

I don't think any of us who believe the polling models to be wrong are being pollyannish. I'm not the type, Mike isn't the type, and Pat Caddell definitely isn't the type. We just don't think there is any real gauge yet for the extent of the ideological shift of the past two years. We'll see on election day. Caddell says we'll know by 6:30 or 7:30 pm the extent of the wave. It might be bigger than you think. For Democrats I'd offer the following advice:

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