Prediction Time

Okay, so I've been scarce around here lately.  That happens, as anyone who follows this blog should know by now. I go underground for awhile. Back, for the moment at least.

Not that I've not been paying attention. One of the reasons I haven't blogged is because I'm reading other blogs, finding out all I can about the upcoming election. My one recent post had to do with my feeling that the polls, as good as they look for Republicans, may not really being showing the extent of the wave that is sweeping the country. As Jay Cost said the other day, it's either a tsunami or the tsunami to end all tsunamis.  More and more I think it could be the latter.

So it's prediction time, time to put up or shut up. How many House seats will the GOP win? How many Senate seats? And how many governorships will they end up holding? Based on pure gut instinct, I say:

House: 73 seats
Senate: 10 seats
Governors: 32 seats

Lots of people are upping their House predictions over the past few days.  For awhile the pros were all hedging their bets, most of them granting that the GOP would win the 39 necessary seats to take control of the House plus a few more. Now, most are predicting mid-50+, others are saying at least 60. I'm sticking with my feeling that the wave has been underestimated by the pollsters.  So put me down for 73, with the hope that it could be more.

As for the Senate, it's gone a bit the opposite way. A few weeks ago, according to most pollsters, it appeared quite likely the GOP could pick up the 10 seats necessary to take control of the Senate. But over the past few weeks both West Virginia and Alaska have switched. Joe Manchin, the very popular Democratic governor, now has taken the lead over John Raese, who'd previously been ahead and who seemed to be pulling away. No more. And in Alaska, the detestable Lizza Macrooski (like Ace, I refuse to spell her name correctly since she's running as a write-in and we don't want to help) seems to be ahead of Joe Miller, who'd defeated Makhoosky in the Republican primary. So both those races are up in the air now. Still, I'm sticking with my prediction of 10. It's quite difficult to win a close race as a write-in, especially when your name is as hard to spell as McCronskey's, and I think Sarah Palin's push for Miller this weekend will help swing things back in his direction. West Virginia may be lost but I still think the GOP wins in Arkansas, Indiana, Florida (go away, Charlie Crist), Wisconsin, Colorado, Kentucky, Illinois, Nevada (bye-bye Harry), and Pennsylvania. The GOP wins West Virginia, or possibly Washington, or (less likely) California, and there is your 10. Even if Alaska goes, Mcluskey will end up caucusing with Republicans, so a loss there would not be so bad strategically. Anyhow, I'm sticking with my wave analysis and my prediction of 10.

As for governors, who knows? I haven't been following those as closely but I'm going for the far-end of what I've seen predicted. 32 is my bet.

In 1988 I nailed all 50 states in the office pool for the presidential race. I'm hoping this time if I'm off, it's on the low side. We need a wave to get it through the thick skulls of the GOP leadership that things have changed. For it is what happens after the election that really matters.